Microscopic Flu Virus

Why all the pandemonium about swine flu?  A pandemic was declared in 2009 and by July only 302 people had died in the US from novel H1N1 flu.  In a normal year 250,000 to 500,000 die globally and 36,000 perish in the United States.  This year’s H1N1 numbers are not earth shaking in comparison.

Mutations are the Problem

The reason that health organizations are afraid that a pandemic is lurking below the surface involves virus mutations.  In 1918 the Spanish flu pandemic killed 50-100 million people on the planet.  Like the current swine flu virus it to was the H1N1 type of influenza.  Scientists this year have reported that certain strains of H1N1 have evolved to be resistant to antiviral drugs like Tamiflu.  H1N1 is a very dangerous microorganism that is very adaptive at surviving and evolving.

Impractical Solution

There is a universal solution though.  The first step would be for everyone in the world to stay home and isolate themselves. The exception would be those who are hospitalized with the flu. Second they would need to follow the extreme hygiene steps in my next article to prevent infection and to treat those who are infected. If these steps were taken then H1N1 would die out in humans in one week.  Problem solved, case closed.  But not so fast!  This strain of H1N1 was passed from swine to humans so it would still be secretly incubating in them.  So completely eradicating this virus is not a realistic possibility.

Research and Plan

The first thing we will do as students of science is to carefully research the facts about novel H1N1 influenza.  Secondly we will plan a course of action to survive a possible pandemic.  If the CDC and WHO predictions are wrong about this threat then we have wasted a little time and money.  But if they are right then a lot of people could get sick and die.

Chicken Little and Howard Hughes

Health organizations in this case are not Chicken Little crowing irresponsibly about our health falling.  It is a risk that we need to take seriously.  However we don’t need to be paralyzed by the fear of infection like the billionaire Howard Hughes was in real life.  His bizarre obsession with avoiding all contact with germs was well documented in the movie about his life (The Aviator, 2004).

NCI Pretend

Let’ get ready to look at the facts about H1N1.  We will pretend for a moment that we are a forensic microbiologist working at NCI.   We want to review everything that is known about this virus. Then we will be able to methodically analyze a flu patient crime scene.  We will mark the H1N1 virus with a special dye. Then we will use a portable black light to methodically track how it spreads from person to person via droplets.  (If you are reading this and are really a forensic whatever, then please feel free to correct any junk science in this article.  I don’t want to be like Gary Larson and create cartoons with polar bears and penguins floating together on the same iceberg).

H1N1 Facts

1. The 2009 flu pandemic is swine-origin Influenza A virus subtype H1N1 to be precise.
2. Influenza A virus strains are assigned an H number and a N number based on which forms of the two proteins the strain contains.
3. All influenza A viruses contain hemagglutinin (H) and neuraminidase (N) proteins on the surface of its coat.
4. There are 16 H and 9 N subtypes known in birds, but only H 1, 2 and 3, and N 1 and 2 are commonly found in humans.
5. The H1N1 virus form appears hideous under the microscope.  (It could easily be a miniature bad guy in a future “Monsters, Inc.” movie.)

H1N1 Infection

1. H1N1 is spread person to person via droplets through speaking, coughing and sneezing.  It not considered a classic airborne disease like anthrax that can remain suspended for long periods.
2. Routes of H1N1 infection are the mouth, nose and eyes.
3. People may become infected by touching anything with flu viruses on it and then touching their mouth, nose or eyes.
4. Studies have shown that influenza virus can survive on environmental surfaces and can infect a person for 2 to 8 hours after being deposited.
5. Common flu symptoms include fever, cough, sore throat, runny or stuffy nose, body aches, headache, chills and fatigue.

H1N1 Immunity

1. Few people have immunity to H1N1 since it is a new strain.
2. H1N1 immunity is obtained through two vaccinations administered three weeks apart. (Update: after initial human trials it has been determined that only one shot is required in the US)
3. Full immunity doesn’t occur until two weeks after the vaccination.
4. High-risk individuals for H1N1 are children, young adults and those with certain medical conditions.
5. The vaccine campaign scheduled for mid-October could miss the peak of the epidemic.
6. Most of the deaths from the virus are from pneumonia and lung failure.
7. Tamiflu (Oseltamivir) is the only effective oral anti-microbial drug used to treat H1N1 infection. The patent to Gilead Sciences is licensed to Roche.
8. The normal incubation period for influenza is 2-4 days.

H1N1 Evolution

1. H1N1 can mutate through viral evolution in a short time frame.
2. Some strains of H1N1 have evolved producing the H274Y NA enzyme mutation which is Tamiflu resistant.
3. Because of virus mutations new booster shots are required annually for influenza.

H1N1 Predictions

1. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared an H1N1 pandemic on June 11, 2009 and moved the alert level to phase 6 which is the highest possible.
2. The last phase 6 alert was in 1968 for the Hong Kong Flu.
3. WHO predicts 2 billion people could be infected with N1H1 in the next two years.
4. The President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) predicts 1.8M could be hospitalized in the US during an H1N1 epidemic.  (This means that someone you know will most likely contract the virus.)
5. PCAST predicts that H1N1 could cause 30,000 – 90,000 deaths in the US.

We are now equipped with the primary facts about H1N1.  Next in the series we will examine detail steps to preventing infection.  Today about 7,000 people will die in the US.  Remember that survival is an option, so choose to survive with me.